Survival Is Not a Solution, But It Beats Dying

If we have learned anything from the recent hurricanes, Helene and Milton, it is perhaps that nowhere is safe from climate change and we must begin to expect the unexpected. Asheville, NC, had previously been identified as a climate change haven — cooler than Florida, distant from the big hurricanes, and mild winters. Yet Asheville suffered from back-to-back climate-related events — one a torrential rain storm that occurred the day before Helene hit, and then the catastrophic Helene. Much of the city is just gone.

I’m not sure one can ever prepare for events like those that hit Asheville, but it is a good idea to assess risk, know what could happen, and be prepared to deal with it. So in this piece, I am going to provide an example by considering the risks in my own area and provide some thoughts on what I might do to survive and thrive among these risks.

Ilive in the forest in northern Wisconsin, about an hour south of Lake Superior. The area is defined by the Chequamegon National Forest, which is managed by the Forest Service for timber, recreation, wildlife, and other uses. I have ten acres and only two neighbors whose lights I can see at night. It is lovely. Yet for us, the risks due to climate change are primarily heat waves, polar vortex, forest fires, drought, severe wind, and intense storms, including blizzards, ice storms, thunderstorms, and tornadoes.

In terms of survival, these weather events can create conditions including:

• Unsurvivable heat
• Unsurvivable cold
• Lack of water
• Smoke inhalation
• Inability to travel or flee
• Death or injury due to destruction or flying debris

The first four of these are intimately tied to the availability of power over the grid. We can maintain a survivable environment indoors if we can be assured that we have the power needed to do so. Forced air heating, air conditioning, the water pump, and any air filtration all require electricity.

The problem is that my remote location frequently experiences power outages. I am the second to the last house on the power line, which means that any upstream outage will affect me, whether it is two houses up, twenty houses up, or two hundred houses up. As a result, power outages are relatively common, and climate change intensified weather makes it worse. We’ve lost power for days in the middle of winter, making forced air furnaces inoperable. In the summer, air conditioning can go out for the same reason.

If survival depends on having power to run the furnace or air conditioning, I am in a precarious position.

This situation creates an interesting conflict. On one hand, I want to electrify my home so I can replace fossil fuel burning with clean electricity as the grid goes green. On the other, I can’t rely on electricity for my survival because it is not dependable, especially in the most extreme circumstances — which are inherently those that cause the power to go out.

Theoretically, I have two options. One is to go solar. However, the density of the forest prevents me from having any suitable location for panels. Even the garden area doesn’t work because even though it is sunny in the summer, it is completely shaded by this time of year and stays that way most of the winter. No sun, no power.

The second option is a burning backup. I could burn wood for heat, but my place is too small to accommodate a wood-burning stove. And wood burning does nothing for cooling in a heat wave. So, I have to go with propane. I installed a wall-mounted propane heater and purchased a small, propane-driven generator just big enough to run my air conditioner. Total cost was about $500 each. My cabin is well-insulated, so I am confident that in an emergency, these two approaches will suffice. Certainly, they give me much more survivability than if I did not have them.

Water is a different issue. My water comes from a well, and that well requires a substantial pump run by electricity. The generator that will run my small AC unit will not power the well pump. This suggests that a whole-house generator would be a better bet than my small one, but they are expensive — about $5,000 installed. The alternative is to stay close to the news and be sure to fill water tanks inside any time inclement weather approaches. I’m not satisfied with this, however, and may still go to the generator.

In recent years, the forest fires out west and in Canada have periodically made the air bad to breathe. The advice is always to stay indoors, but when it goes on for days, indoors gets just as bad as outdoors. Air filters are great inside for keeping the air cleaner than it would otherwise be, but they require electricity, making them susceptible to the same problems as my other environmental controls dependent on the grid.

For me, the ability to generate power separate from the grid is essential, and it seems like the very best way to do that is with a propane-fired whole-house generator. I wouldn’t use it often, but it is probably worth the investment to increase survivability.

Inability to Flee

Most places in the US are susceptible to some kind of event from which you would want to flee. In almost all circumstances, that means I need an operating vehicle. People in Hurricane Milton recently found out that the assumptions we make about the availability of gasoline may not hold when we most need it to be reliably available. If I saw a fire coming and wanted to travel 200 miles to get away from it, one gallon of gas wouldn’t cut it. Neither will an hour of charge on an EV battery. As a safety practice, I try to keep my vehicle at least half full or half charged all the time.

Let’s assume I have covered my ability to flee. The next question is: Where do I go? In my case, I am fortunate to have an old sailboat that I can live on, at least in the summer, that is only an hour away. Not everyone has that, but the issue is the same — where will you go? And for me, where do I go in early spring before the boat is available and when wildfires are most common in Wisconsin?

For me, surviving a need-to-flee situation involves two things. First, as we have seen, keep the car at least half full or charged, and keep a spare tank of gas in the shed just in case. I rotate that one out every month so that old gas doesn’t create an operating problem.

Second, I keep the sailboat ready as a place to go in the summer. I try to get it into the water early and out late every year to keep it available. Water, clothing, and food are all stocked. I can leave without any preparation.

For winter, I have friends over 100 miles away with whom I occasionally discuss these concerns and who say I can come to their homes. I try to keep three alternatives available.

Safety from Debris and Destruction

Storms also create conditions in which one would prefer to be somewhere else. Unless you get a direct hit by a tornado or lose power in extreme heat or cold, neither summer nor winter storms are unsurvivable in this area. We already discussed losing power, so severe thunderstorms, tornados, and blizzards/excessive snowfall are what remain.

These storm-related disasters are a fact of life in my area. Yes, the storms are more intense, snowfall accumulates more, and tornados may be much larger than we usually see — all related to climate change. Yet, by and large, we get it. While tornados can be catastrophic and complete in targeted areas, storms don’t destroy whole cities as the recent hurricanes did in Florida. We know how to handle them, and power outages — which we already discussed — are the most common problem.

Tornadoes are notoriously unpredictable, particularly in reference to a specific location. They tend to come up quickly and without notice. Watches may be issued, but that can be for the entire county. Other than getting out of the way of a tornado that is on the ground and moving, fleeing a large area isn’t really a strategy. Sheltering is. Basements are a great way to shelter. I, however, don’t have a basement, so the interior of the house is the best I can do.

For resiliency planning, however, building a basement is a very good idea. Sheltering there can get you away from tornadoes and keep you cool in a heat wave. It’s an investment, and most people who are not building something anyway probably won’t add one. But I can guarantee you that for me, when the time comes to build an addition, it will be upon a basement foundation for this exact reason.

Staying resilient

I’m not happy to be writing about how to cope with climate change, because it means we have lost the fight to prevent it. Yet, everyone knows it is now happening, even the most ardent deniers. They know it in their bones, or they wouldn’t be so taken with denial. We are at a point where it is a fact of life, and only the foolish will pretend that it isn’t.

To me, climate change doesn’t mean creating a bunker full of food and water like many survivalists are doing. If things go so bad that the only way to survive is in a bunker for a year, I’m not sure I wouldn’t prefer to be in the other world. After all, if it gets that bad, what in the world makes one think that after a year, there will be a better planet to come back to? What are you surviving for?

On the other hand, planning for resilience is prudent. In most places, we are not talking about extended ongoing events of heat, cold, or fire, but rather of episodes that last a few days or weeks. I’m not inclined to give up my life because of a short-term heat wave. When we get through with the heat wave, we can be sure there is good life to live on the other side. That is worth surviving for. It is worth being resilient for.

Anthony Signorelli